A supremacia chinesa na extração de minerais críticos e o fomento da energia limpa na transição energética

Vânia Siciliano Aieta
6 de jun.
12 min de leitura

Vânia Siciliano Aieta | Director Counselor of CEJUR(NUPEC)

Vinícius Peixoto Gonçalves | Partner at PEIXOTO RAMOS LAWYERS

“Dinheiro é como a água do mar: quanto mais você toma, maior é a sua sede;

“Wealth is like sea-water; the more we drink, the thirstier we become;”

Arthur Schopenhauer

Minerais Críticos – Energia Limpa – Transição Energética

This paper addresses the issue of rare minerals, seeking to demonstrate that the Arctic is one of the most prominent regions in terms of potential for the extraction of these materials. I present a brief market diagnosis with the aim of balancing the leading roles played by China, Russia, the United States and other powers in this insurgent market for the riches extracted from the seabed. I also examine the issue of whether deep-sea mineral extraction could serve as a front for military operations, such as research that can benefit the navigation of Chinese submarines. Finally, I highlight the concerns of environmentalists, since the ocean floor is home to thousands of species that could be severely impacted by mining. In conclusion, I discuss who will control the supply chains of clean energy industries, highlighting that China already has a significant advantage in this field and that underwater mining could further consolidate this position.

O presente artigo versa sobre a problemática dos minerais raros, procurando demonstrar como o Ártico é uma das regiões de maior destaque quanto ao potencial para a extração desses materiais. Faz-se um diagnóstico de mercado com o objetivo de mesurar o protagonismo entre China, Rússia, EUA e demais potências nesse mercado insurgente acerca das riquezas extraídas do fundo do mar. Abordar-se-á, ainda, que a extração de minérios em águas profundas possa servir de fachada para operações militares como a pesquisa que beneficiaria a navegação de submarinos chineses. Por fim, destaca-se também as preocupações dos ambientalistas, pois o fundo do oceano é lar de milhares de espécies que podem ser severamente impactadas pela mineração. Como conclusão, o trabalho almeja demonstrar quem controlará as cadeias de suprimento das indústrias de energia limpa, destacando que a China já possui uma vantagem significativa nesse campo e que a mineração submarina poderia consolidar ainda mais essa posição.

Critical Minerals – Clean Energy – Energy Transition

The Asian giant China is targeting the ocean floor to extract trillions of tons of copper, nickel, cobalt and manganese, aiming to hold the world hostage regarding critical minerals and military operations.

Mineral extraction is becoming increasingly relevant, both in the geopolitical context and the strategic control of logistics chains by major global powers such as China and the United States. A particular example is the 17 so-called rare earth elements (REEs), traditionally known for their use in the glass and metallurgy industries.

However, they are also valuable due to their fundamental role in the green economy and digital energy transition, being essential in technologies such as wind turbines, solar panels and smartphones. As a result, the attention devoted to these elements comes not only from state entities, but also from multi-billionaires such as Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk.

The Arctic is one of the regions with the greatest potential for extracting these substances. Furthermore, the effects of climate change and the consequent reduction in ice cover across the North Pole have created better opportunities to explore the commercial and strategic potential of this region. The melting of the ice facilitates access to previously inaccessible areas, resulting in the emergence of new locations for the exploration and extraction of REEs. Thus, as the Arctic becomes a key setting for geopolitcal dynamics, a new race for resources has been triggered in the region.

China currently accounts for around 70% of global mining production and has at least 85% of the world's processing capacity, making it the predominant force in this industrial market. But it was not always so. From 1950 to the mid-1980s, control of this market was consolidated in the USA. China only became a significant producer and exporter of REEs in the mid-1970s, which also corresponds to a period when the USA was dealing with the rise of environmental movements and a growing trend of deindustrialization and relocation of industries. In fact, the most productive and important mine in the USA ended up ceasing operations in 2002, despite these factors.

Shortly thereafter, in the early 1980s, the liberalization of the Chinese economy and later the policies directed at the mining industry carried out by Deng Xiaoping ended up allowing international companies to establish operations in the Asian giant, thus contributing to local technological knowledge.

China's capacity to produce rare earth chlorides and mixed oxides reached approximately 10,000 tons in 1985. This was when China fully consolidated its hegemony in this industry. The closure of mines in the USA, as well as in other countries such as Japan, led to growing dependence on the Chinese REE market, which is still felt today. And despite the United States' recognition of the need to reduce dependence on Chinese suppliers, recent data show that the USA imported about 74% of its REEs from China between 2018 and 2021.

In order to consolidate its control over the production and export of these elements, China is now looking to the Arctic. In this context, Greenland, despite having achieved independence from Denmark in 2009, still faces the significant challenge of reducing its dependence on Danish subsidies, which continue to represent about half of its public budget.

The discovery of substantial REE deposits in its territory has attracted the attention not only of China and Western nations, but also of its now independent government, which is increasingly inclined to welcome foreign investment.

More specifically, the Kvanefjeld Project, located in southern Greenland, stands out as a focal point of interest for Chinese stakeholders due to its status as a multi-element deposit rich in REEs, uranium, zinc and fluorine. The project is of strategic importance both for its resource potential and for its geopolitical implications. Shenghe Resources, which holds a 12.5% stake in GME, has contributed technology and expertise to the entire project, which is also relevant to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Feasibility studies have also been conducted in conjunction with China Communications Construction Co. (CCCC), including collaborative efforts from the joint venture between Shenghe and subsidiaries of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), to import and process further REEs from Kvanefjeld. China's involvement in several REE projects in Greenland, including Kvanefjeld and others such as Kringlerne (Tanbreez), reinforces its intention to secure Chinese hegemony by encompassing other regions with the potential to exploit some of the world's largest REE deposits.

However, there are still important challenges to mineral extraction in the Arctic, very similar to the challenges posed by hydrocarbon extraction. Despite the increasing viability of these practices, the region's climate conditions continue to pose difficulties and obstacles to the exploitation of these elements and minerals. Due to Greenland’s remote location, there is a huge need for infrastructure such as better access roads, as well as more sophisticated forms of maintenance of the mining equipment.

But it is not only technological challenges that face projects such as Kvanefjeld. Concerns related to environmental factors, such as the disposal of radioactive waste that is intrinsically linked to uranium deposits, have also been a source of discussion in Greenland. In fact, in the 2021 elections, the socialist party of Múte Bourup Egede, who was elected, called for the interruption of the mining project in order to strengthen environmental protection and prevent toxicity risks. When he came to power, Minister Egede initiated negotiations between the Greenland government and Greenland Minerals and Energy in order to mitigate the potentially costly environmental impacts on its population.

However, despite these negotiations, the Kvanefjeld Project remains on track and Shenghe Resources continues to play a major role. China continues to view Greenland and other Arctic regions as strategic areas for further development of its economic dominance in global market supply chains, especially with regard to obtaining valuable natural resources such as minerals and REEs, which are abundant in the Arctic.

In this sense, Russia also faces challenges to avoid becoming extremely dependent on China when it comes to mining, especially after Western sanctions due to the armed conflict with Ukraine, which triggered a the strengthening of relations with its Chinese competitor.

Russia currently ranks second in the world in terms of REE reserves, although domestic extraction accounts for less than 2% of the global total. Annual REE production in Russia ranges from 2,600 to 2,700 tons, of which less than 5% is processed.

As one would expect, in this limited production scenario, Russia imports 90% of the processed rare earth elements it consumes, which mainly comes from China. And although this is not yet a reality, geopolitical analysts and experts in mineral resources and rare earths suggest that Russia’s production challenges could attract Chinese investments.

Finally, Chinese involvement is not only felt in the global market, but specifically in the Arctic, where it has driven a still-timid US response to building infrastructure and opening mines for mineral resource exploration and production. Alaska remains the obvious choice for the USA, and the potential of the Red Dog Mine will therefore be considered for the recovery of critical minerals, while new projects, such as the Bokan-Dotson Ridge REE Project, highlight the efforts of the US to establish processing plants and reduce dependence on Chinese imports. Ucore Rare Materials, a US company, also aims to develop a processing and separation plant for REEs as part of this project..As nations grapple with the complexities of the global REE market, the search for alternative sources has taken them to the Arctic, where geopolitical tensions, environmental controversies and economic interests intertwine.

Greenland's REE deposits, currently in the spotlight of global investors, particularly Chinese players, highlight the region's importance in ensuring a stable supply chain for these critical minerals, and in China's continued competition for supremacy in this market, or in reducing the dependence of the USA and other countries such as Japan on the Chinese market.

China, now the largest manufacturer of solar panels, electric cars and batteries, is targeting the ocean floor to extract copper, nickel, cobalt and manganese. Spread throughout the deep sea, underwater mining is becoming a new market El Dorado, as these “critical minerals” are essential for the green economy that the world is pursuing. But the path to extracting them is still full of regulatory uncertainties.

The UN's International Seabed Authority (ISA) is still deliberating on the rules for this practice. On the one hand, environmental groups are calling for a total ban, fearing irreparable damage to marine ecosystems. On the other, companies and governments are pushing for regulations that allow controlled exploration.

Demand for critical minerals is expected to more than double by 2040, and China is emerging as the world leader in the manufacture of solar panels, electric cars and batteries, all of which depend on these minerals. Last year, clean energy industries accounted for 40% of China’s GDP growth, according to the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research, a Finnish think tank.

However, China’s dependence on imports of these minerals from other nations, such as South Africa, Gabon, Australia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, worries its leaders. They fear that political instability or pressure from rivals such as the United States could disrupt supplies of these essential materials. The race for critical minerals has thus become a new front in the global strategic competition.

The importance of these minerals to China’s future is comparable to that of oil and gas. Deep-sea mining is emerging as a solution to ensure a secure supply, far from other countries’ borders. In 2016, China’s leader Xi Jinping highlighted the need to explore the ocean’s “hidden treasures,” while launching a nationwide effort to conquer the seabed.

To achieve this goal, China has spent years nurturing influence within the ISA at the UN. The body, which is responsible for regulating the seabed in international waters, receives funding from its members, with China being the largest donor. In 2020, the country also offered a training facility in the port city of Qingdao, further strengthening its ties with the ISA.

During recent ISA meetings, some countries have tried to impose a moratorium on underwater mining, but have been blocked by Chinese pressure. China’s goal is to establish a permissive mining regime without outside interference, says Isaac Kardon of The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. To date, the ISA has issued 31 mineral exploration licenses, with China holding five of them, more than any other country.

Chinese mining companies include China Ocean Mineral R&D Association, China Minmetals and Beijing Pioneer Hi-Tech Development. Three of the Chinese licenses cover areas in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in the eastern Pacific Ocean, where there are mineral deposits comparable to all terrestrial reserves. The other two are located in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans.

However, Chinese companies are not just looking for profit. They have broader goals, such as securing mineral supplies to strengthen the nation. In March, the chairman of China Minmetals, a state-owned giant, promised to expand operations to ensure that China cannot be displaced from global supply chains, stressing that undersea mining is crucial to “rejuvenating the Chinese nation.”

Another relevant aspect to consider is China’s ability to build ships and robots quickly. Deep-sea mining involves advanced technology, with large robots sent to the seabed to collect polymetallic nodules. While Chinese technology is not yet the most advanced, it is evolving rapidly. In July, a team from Shanghai Jiao Tong University tested a robot at a depth of more than 4,000 meters, collecting 200 kg of material. Chinese state media highlighted the use of domestic components, breaking the international monopoly.

If commercial mining does indeed take off, Chinese companies will likely lead the way. China’s ability to build ships and robots quickly, coupled with generous government support, puts it ahead of any competitor. Furthermore, the vast domestic demand for these minerals ensures a steady market for the riches extracted from the seabed.

But the prospect is worrying to environmentalists. The ocean floor is home to thousands of unique species, from microbes to sponges, that could be severely impacted by mining. Even with strict regulations, robots could cause irreversible damage, destroying habitats and creating sediment plumes that threaten marine life. What’s more, Chinese mining companies have a troubling track record of environmental responsibility, even on land where enforcement is easier.

The biggest Western concern, however, is who will control the supply chains of clean energy industries. China already has a significant advantage in this area, and underwater mining could further entrench that position. Meanwhile, the United States, which has not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), is excluded from the ISA discussions at the UN, which has greatly benefited China.

China's power in underwater mining stands out globally, positioning the country as a leader in this new frontier of mineral resource exploration due to its notable technological leadership and heavy investments . The construction of an underwater space station 2,000 meters deep in the South China Sea, intended for scientific research and mineral exploration, sets the stage for geopolitical dominance through contracts and bilateral agreements, such as the one with the Cook Islands . This reinforces China’s influence in the Pacific, guaranteeing access to strategic resources.

The global energy transition increases demand for critical minerals, notably metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earth elements, essential for electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy.

And China, the world's largest producer of these inputs, is seeking to secure these new underwater resources. Projections indicate that demand for these minerals should increase fivefold by 2050, which shows that terrestrial mining may not be sufficient.

The USA, by not ratifying the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), is at a disadvantage, allowing China to influence the rules of the ISA. In 2025, Brazilian oceanographer LETÍCIA CARVALHO was elected Secretary General of the ISA, which could impact the direction of global regulation.

Finally, China is establishing itself at the forefront of underwater mining, combining technological capacity, geopolitical influence and strategic need for resources. However, the lack of international regulation and the environmental risks make this advance controversial. While the USA tries to react, China is consolidating its leadership, shaping the future of this emerging industry.

Dra. Vânia Siciliana Aieta - Director Counselor of CEJUR (NUPEC) . Doctorate in Constitutional Law (PUC-SP) with Post-Doctorate from the University of Santiago de Compostela (USC – Spain) and PUC-Rio. Master in Constitutional Law (PUC-Rio). MBA - Master oh Lobbying, Corruption and Public Ethics from Unitelma Sapienza di Roma. Specialization in Electoral Law from CEPED-UERJ. Law Degree from UERJ and Bachelor’s Degree in History from UVA. Coordinator of Constitutional Law at IBEROJUR. Visiting Researcher at the University of Santiago de Compostela, Spain, Visiting Scholar at Universitá Unitelma Sapienza, Rome, Italy and in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (2021), where she was a researcher with an ERASMUS scholarship. Professor of Undergraduate and Postgraduate Courses at the Faculty of Law of UERJ (PPGD-UERJ). Professor at Veiga de Almeida University (UVA). Member of the Brazilian Bar Association, Rio de Janeiro State Chapter (OAB-RJ). Chair President of the OAB-RJ Constitutional Law Committee. Lawyer, lecturer and opinion writer.

Doutora em Direito Constitucional (PUC-SP) com Pós-Doutorado na Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (USC – Espanha) e na PUC-Rio. Mestre em Direito Constitucional (PUC-Rio). MBA - Master in Lobbying , Corruzione ed Etica Pubblica pela Unitelma Sapienza di Roma. Especialização em Direito Eleitoral pelo CEPED-UERJ. Graduação em Direito pela UERJ e em História pela UVA. Coordenadora de Direito Constitucional do IBEROJUR. Visiting Researcher na Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Espanha, Visiting Scholar na Universitá Unitelma Sapienza, Roma, Itália e na Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (2021), onde foi pesquisadora com bolsa ERASMUS. Professora dos Cursos de Graduação e Pós-Graduação da Faculdade de Direito da UERJ (PPGD-UERJ). Professora da Universidade Veiga de Almeida (UVA). Conselheira Titular da Seccional da OAB-RJ. Presidente da Comissão de Direito Constitucional da OAB-RJ. Advogada, conferencista e parecerista.

Sócio da Peixoto Ramos Advogados. Expert em Óleo, Gás e Petróleo. Direito Regulatório e Energético. Transição Energética.

Partner at Peixoto Ramos Lawyers. Expert in Oil, Gas, and Petroleum. Regulatory and Energy Law. Energy Transition

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NUPEC NEWS

A supremacia chinesa na extração de minerais críticos e o fomento da energia limpa na transição energética

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